Sean t rcp twitter.
“I mean, Cameron County 50-50 with half the vote counted? Obama beat Romney here by 30 points. He won Willacy County by 40 (which is also tied right now). I mean later votes will probably shift things but the fact that this is even close in a congressional race . . .”
“Most people on this site sort into the relatively extreme positions of the two major parties: Almost no restrictions and government-funded, or made illegal. But when analyzing the impact of this opinion, just remember that most voters don't sort neatly into either camp. 2/”“Gen X is gonna get skipped over for presidents until we're 80 years old like the Silents. No respect.”“OK, let's settle this: Worst Star Wars main storyline movie. I'll give my take at the end, but I do think a case can be made for any of these.”Log in. Sign up
ANALYSIS. By Sean Trende - RCP Staff. November 17, 2022. AP. As of this writing, most states have counted their 2022 election ballots. California, being California, …“@DavidNir @JMilesColeman @grace_panetta Larry Pressler once walked into a closet in a committee hearing instead of the exit and rather than admit his mistake he stayed in the closet for the duration of the hearing. Also, hard to believe that South Dakota was a 3-point race that year!”
“@geoffreyvs Or at least, either Al Gore lost or Donald Trump lost, depending what the model claims to predict. Can't have picked them both correctly.”
“Any of the remaining three presents a strong case, to my mind. I don't think it's AotC though. OK, fine, "I don't like sand" is arguably the worst or second worst line in all Star Wars history. But if you pull the Padme/Anakin romance and ninja Yoda stuff, it …“Gen X is gonna get skipped over for presidents until we're 80 years old like the Silents. No respect.”Sean T at RCP. SeanTrende. ... My hot takes on contemporary Twitter discussions:(1) I think Trump is likely to lose. Maybe 1-in-5 chance he wins(?)(2) I don't think the 1988 example is terribly apposite; that was Read more. So my Poli Sci 1100 class from Fall '19 will remember -- or should! -- me saying that I thought the arg. in the Title VII ...Sean T at RCP Verified account @SeanTrende. Sr. Elections Analyst, RCP. @osupolisci. @aei. Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende, dad to 3. You shall love …“The truth is, I think the Biden will have a better chance at re-election than the environment (whatever it is in 2024) will suggest, because Trump will make the election about him rather the environment. Should Trump lose the primary, he'll go nuclear on the GOP nominee.”
“@NickRiccardi @billscher $100B (at last estimate) for something that may or may not have an appreciable impact on NY-SF traffic isn't really cheapskating. It's like 1/5th of the cost of building the entire interstate system!”
Since Twitter seems reasonably likely to go away in the next couple of years, my 2c: Obvs the site is miserable, but there's an entire generation of top-notch young analysts like @JMilesColeman who probably would have gone unnoticed but for Twitter. 1/ 31 Oct 2022 01:42:44
Sean T at RCP Verified account @SeanTrende. Sr. Elections Analyst, RCP. @osupolisci. @aei. Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende, dad to 3. You shall love your crooked neighbor, with your crooked heart.“Look, it sounds like the debate is an utter disaster for him. But few will watch it, and it's a hard thing to go on the attack about without inspiring a backlash. This hurts Fetterman, but I don't think things have shifted all that dramatically.”“What an apolitical redraw does is add some responsiveness to maps. In great D years they can draw to parity in PA, and in the map my class drew they might end up 6-9 or 7-8 in Ohio. A solid gerrymander might prevent those outcomes. 6/”In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@zackbeauchamp The financial collapse of 2008, and then the election turning out pretty much exactly what we would expect given Q2 data.”Team with biggest starting budget in Football Manager 2024 aren't playable on the game. Four out of the top five teams with the highest transfer budgets in Football Manager 2024 are not playable ...
“Most people on this site sort into the relatively extreme positions of the two major parties: Almost no restrictions and government-funded, or made illegal. But when analyzing the impact of this opinion, just remember that most voters don't sort neatly into either camp. 2/”On April 25, 2022, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, struck a tentative deal, purchasing Twitter for $44 billion. While he isn’t the first billionaire to step into a media-adjacent space, the move leaves users and members of the general p...“Any of the remaining three presents a strong case, to my mind. I don't think it's AotC though. OK, fine, "I don't like sand" is arguably the worst or second worst line in all Star Wars history. But if you pull the Padme/Anakin romance and ninja Yoda stuff, it …“On the uncontested House races, it is obviously proper to try to estimate vote totals for those seats. It's weird that people are suddenly super keyed in on this known-for-decades-but-always-ignore-issue, but whatevs. There are 10R uncontested and 2D. BUT . …“Anyway, this might be a one-off thing. I hope it's a one off thing, and not another example of liberalism, having become ascendant in American politics, abandoning some of the principles that enabled it to begin its ascent out of fear that something else might replace it. 6/”Sean T at RCP Verified account @SeanTrende. Sr. Elections Analyst, RCP. @osupolisci. @aei. Recovering Att'y. Married to @emytrende, dad to 3. You shall love your crooked neighbor, with your crooked heart.
“We need more analysis like this. Hispanics are not a monolith -- the entire construct isn't necessarily how people termed "Hispanic" or "Latino" conceive of themselves. Immigration, for example, has very different relationships with Mex-Am, Cuban-Am, and Puerto Rican voters.”
“@Nate_Cohn Yeah, part of the problem is the modern right's disdain for academia/anti-Intellectual-ism, combined with the fact that the CRT stuff has a fair amount of overlap with traditional racial liberalism stuff. So it's easy to lump them together.”In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersSean T at RCP is a free elf @SeanTrende. I am not dismissive of these studies, but in retrospect my friends in high school who were the most into drugs tended to be self-medicating for anxiety/depression. Hard to separate chickens from eggs here. Quote Tweet. Gary Rosen.Sean Trende is the Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics. He is the author of "The Lost Majority: Why the Future of Government Is Up for Grabs and Who Will Take It," and co-authored the ...“Gen X is gonna get skipped over for presidents until we're 80 years old like the Silents. No respect.”Good @ThePlumLineGS post on fixing the Electoral Count Act, something that should have bipartisan support. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/08/30/how ... “Even just having Snoke hint that there's a larger force behind him, and maybe having Ren meet Palpatine at the end of Episode VIII as a cliffhanger and then giving the explanation of how in IX would fix quite a bit. And that then brings us to VIII. 9/”“@jibberegg @Nate_Cohn @ZachWeiner The version I came across didn't have the attribution, but I am happy to have it attached (by my replying, this should bump the comment up to the top of the comment chain). Thanks!”
“The story that makes the most sense re the leak is actually Chief Justice Roberts, trying to illustrate to a swing justice what the backlash would be like. But it is also completely out of character for Roberts; burn the village …
Sean Hannity, the popular conservative political commentator and author, has never been divorced. There were allegations spreading concerning his divorce, however, these allegations turned out to be merely rumors. He has been married to his...
In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @ Protected Tweets @“Ds missing the runoff in Texas isn't that terrible--it's often a quirk of these jungle primaries--but Ds getting outrun 62%-37% in total voteshare among the candidates in a Trump + 4 district is substantially worse than I'd expected. One election though.”In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“But in a wave year, these will come into varying degrees of play. So if the generic ballot starts to reach R+6 or so (which is probably about right if Biden stays in the low 40s) you're suddenly in a scenario where about 30 seats suddenly come into play. 5/”“Aside from the expense, this is a significant risk to human life in a disproportionately elderly body that already has some known cases. If he does this, the House should expel him (and anyone else who goes along with him).”Sean Hannity frequently interviews politicians, candidates, pundits and controversial figures. Specific guests who appear frequently on his show include Senator John McCain, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and former Massachuset...“Alright, Florida (mostly), Georgia, IN-01, Western KY, SC, VT and VA are on deck. Then at 8, all hell breaks loose.”Oct 22, 2022 · “I think these analyses provide useful context on where this election stands. The biggest limitation on these analyses isn't that the GOP holds a large number of seats to begin. It is that they describe linear relationships between seat gain which probably don't hold this cycle.” May 3, 2022 · “Most people on this site sort into the relatively extreme positions of the two major parties: Almost no restrictions and government-funded, or made illegal. But when analyzing the impact of this opinion, just remember that most voters don't sort neatly into either camp. 2/” Nov 2, 2021 · “I've done these before and they are a handy way to see what the votes mean. Basically, once counties clear a certain number of votes in, this take them and compares them to 2017 results, with 4.5% taken off the 2017 results (since Northam won by 9). 1/”
“@billscher @ThePlumLineGS I still think the biggest threats to Ds in a non-filibuster universe are things that can get to the core of their power infrastructure: national right to work, school vouchers, limits on public sector unions, tort reform, etc.”Oct 26, 2022 · “Look, it sounds like the debate is an utter disaster for him. But few will watch it, and it's a hard thing to go on the attack about without inspiring a backlash. This hurts Fetterman, but I don't think things have shifted all that dramatically.” “On the uncontested House races, it is obviously proper to try to estimate vote totals for those seats. It's weird that people are suddenly super keyed in on this known-for-decades-but-always-ignore-issue, but whatevs. There are 10R uncontested and 2D. BUT . …Instagram:https://instagram. courseware loginstair kits lowestheatre practicumk state basketball history 1 Mar 2018 ... Christian Greico breaks down his win in the Toyota Series Northern Division event on the Potomac River. Additionally, he goes in-depth on ...“This remains the key chart for how big GOP House gains will be: Biden vote share by the number of districts with that vote share. At R+3 or so nationally, the GOP starts to climb the levy that Democrats built with Biden +10 (or so) districts. 1/” elizabeth stevenscomunidad que es In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“Gen X is gonna get skipped over for presidents until we're 80 years old like the Silents. No respect.” marlboro patch nj Hillary's thoughts on the election results: "It turns out women enjoy having human rights, and we vote." twitter. 154. 1. r/hillaryclinton. Join. • 21 days ago. Hillary Clinton on Nancy Pelosi stepping down: "The best to ever do it. Thank you, Madam Speaker."Jun 5, 2021 · In this conversation. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users VA-10 was carried by McAuliffe by like 3 points, so if that flips it is beyond something we've seen in our lifetime and Rs are going to have 250+ seats.